As Trumpism is on Rise in UK, Indians May Face the Heat

Pollsters in the UK are warning of a potential “political earthquake” as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surges in popularity, with some projections even suggesting that Farage could become Prime Minister if elections were held today. This political shift could have significant consequences for Indian students and the wider Indian diaspora.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has ramped up attacks on Reform UK in an effort to curb its rise, but those efforts appear to be faltering. Farage and his party have seen a dramatic increase in support, with the latest Electoral Calculus forecast projecting a 74-seat majority for Reform UK. According to the poll, Reform would secure 362 seats, while Labour would plummet to 132 and the Conservatives would be nearly wiped out, holding just 22.

Reform UK is polling at a record high of 31%, nine points ahead of Labour (22%) and nearly double the Conservative share (16%). Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, stated, “On these figures, Nigel Farage would be prime minister with a working majority and no need for a coalition.”

Labour has responded with alarm, warning that a Farage-led government could add £5,500 to average mortgage costs due to tens of billions in unfunded spending pledges. Starmer dismissed Farage’s platform as a “mad experiment,” comparing it to the short-lived and chaotic premiership of Liz Truss.

Zia Yusuf, chairman of Reform UK, welcomed the polling results, saying, “It is clear that Reform has all the momentum in British politics. With Labour and the Tories allowing immigration and the cost of living to spiral, it’s no wonder people are rejecting the two-party system.”

The Earthquake Begins

Last month’s local council elections and by-elections marked the formal beginning of this political upheaval. Reform UK converted its polling strength into tangible political wins, securing a mayoralty, two county councils (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire), several dozen council seats, and another parliamentary seat—this time in northwest England, where it defeated Labour by just six votes in a longtime stronghold.

The result dealt a heavy blow to Labour, which had won the same seat just 10 months earlier with 53% of the vote. The narrow loss signaled voter discontent and the erosion of traditional party loyalties.

Starmer’s Rapid Fall

Starmer’s Labour Party won one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in modern UK history in the 2024 general election. But since then, he has seen the fastest collapse in popularity of any newly elected British government.

Farage, a prominent Brexit advocate and ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, celebrated Reform UK’s recent by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby—a seat Labour previously held with a 15,000-vote majority—as evidence of Labour’s “vote collapse.”

Labour has lost ground due to tax hikes, benefit cuts for seniors, and proposed welfare reforms, alienating its core base and pushing many towards Reform UK. In 2024, despite winning a majority with only 34% of the popular vote, Labour faced a dismal showing overall as Reform came second in 98 constituencies and picked up five MPs.

Now, voters seem to be turning again—this time towards Farage’s populist call for change: “Britain is broken and needs Reform.”

Immigration at the Heart of the Debate

Facing growing pressure, Starmer unveiled a tough new Immigration White Paper aimed at dramatically cutting immigration—an issue that helped drive the Brexit vote in 2016. Ironically, since leaving the EU, net migration has quadrupled.

The new policy includes:

• Doubling the time required to qualify for settlement in the UK from 5 to 10 years

• Tighter English language requirements for visa applicants and dependants

• Reduced post-study stay for international students

• Restrictions on care worker visas

• New powers to deport foreign nationals convicted of crimes

• A requirement for skilled migrants to have university degrees

Starmer, who once supported remaining in the EU, said the UK risks becoming an “island of strangers” without stricter immigration controls. However, his hardline shift risks alienating Labour’s traditionally pro-immigration, left-of-centre voter base, possibly driving them to the Liberal Democrats or Greens.

Impact on the Indian Diaspora

Indians are among the largest groups affected, as they make up a significant portion of the UK’s international students and skilled workers. The proposed changes would make it harder for Indian nationals to settle, bring dependants, or remain in the UK after graduation.

The political calculus driving these decisions is clear. With Reform UK gaining ground, Starmer is under pressure to appeal to voters increasingly concerned about immigration.

Public Trust on Immigration Favors Farage

A recent Ipsos poll conducted from May 16–20 found Reform UK is now the most trusted party on immigration. The public trusts Farage’s party the most to:

• Have the right policies on immigration (37%)

• Handle Channel migrant crossings (39%)

• Make illegal entry more difficult (42%)

In contrast, the Conservatives scored the lowest on all three measures. Only around 25% trust Labour or the Liberal Democrats on immigration.

Nigel Farage is also the most trusted leader on immigration (28%), far ahead of Keir Starmer (15%).

Two-thirds (67%) of respondents believe immigration is too high, with most blaming generous welfare benefits (60%), human trafficking networks (50%), and global conflicts (34%).

Growing Anti-Immigrant Sentiment

The rise of Reform UK is not just about policy—it reflects deeper societal undercurrents. In 2024, race riots involving far-right groups highlighted how anti-immigrant sentiment is becoming increasingly visible. These sentiments have simmered for years but are now boiling over, driven by economic strain, cultural anxiety, and political disillusionment.

As Gideon Skinner of Ipsos noted, “The public continues to have little trust in the main parties on immigration. Reform UK is clearly emerging as the most trusted party on this issue in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.”

The challenge now for the government—and indeed for the UK as a whole—is to address public concerns on immigration without undermining the country’s values or social cohesion. For the Indian community and other immigrant groups, the road ahead may be increasingly uncertain.