Bihar may see a Hung Assembly

Bihar may return a hung Assembly. Jan Suraaj has put spanner in the works of both alliances, Mahagathbandhan and NDA. People have started speculating as to whether a coalition government can be put together in the event of no alliances getting the majority.

All the three contenders, NDA, Mahagathbandhan and Jan Suraaj, are claiming victory to boost the morale of the workers. Prashant claims that he would get a clear majority and that Jan Suraaj can even go up to sweep the poll.

They pivot their hopes on the basis of the crowds they are pulling in in their public meetings. But there is a long way between people milling around them and pushing the EVM button on the polling day. Prashant sounds more confident than the two alliances’ leaders as he will be a net gainer in this election.

Freebies galore in the manifesto of the two alliances. The NDA has thrown crumbs in instalments at the voters to lure them. Tejashwi Yadav feels that his promise of one government job to each jobless family will change the game. Prashant hopes his trifecta–Migration, Unemployment and Education– would trump them all.

He also pins his hopes on the 26 percent of the voters who in the last election neither voted for NDA or Mahagathbandhan and migrant voters. He calculates that if Jan Suraaj is able to cut into even five percent votes of each alliance, he will be ashore. He has ruled out joining hands with any of the alliances to form a government.

Amid this potential scenario, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been left guessing as to his fate this election as the BJP top leadership-- Prime Narendra Modi or Home Minister Amit Shah--have not categorically made it public that Nitish would lead the NDA if it is given another term.

It has set the tongues wagging about the possibility of a post-election alliance between Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish Kumar. RJD and JDU represent the socio-political base. Nitish these days is no more harping on his off-repeated sentence that 'he had joined hands with RJD twice by mistake. He will now never desert BJP.

Before the election it was his refrain in every speech. He has started reeling out the projects that he has implemented for the welfare of the Muslim in the state. Home Minister Amit Shah brings in the illegal immigration issue centre stage at his every public meeting, Nitish skirts it around in his election speeches.

In no public meetings has Amit Shah shared the stage with Nitish Kumar. People see in these happenings the portends of post-election Tejashwi-Nitish tie up. Another speculation doing the rounds are that Nitish may hug Prashant Kishor after the poll if the need arises.

Though Prashant Kishor takes pot shots at the Nitish Government but he gives a clean chit to him. He has put in the dock all those Ministers with whom the Chief Minister is unhappy. Nitish immediately distanced himself from Rural Works Minister Ashok Chaudhary when skeletons came tumbling down from his closet after Prashant Kishor opened the door.

Bihar is at an inflection point in this election. Whether it will stick to the status of caste loyalties or mix it with the narrative to give a new direction to the state. ‘’Vote Dega Bihari, Aur Factory Banega Gujarat Mein” narrative has caught on among the voters, particularly among Gen Z. Coined by Prashant Kishor, all the parties are parroting it at their public meeting.

But the caste loyalties are as well always alive. Another important factor which will play out is the rooting by different caste groups for the musclemen in the fray. Both alliances have plentiful such candidates in the field. They have state-wide influence to the tilt the scales. But the star contest is slated at Mokama. JDU’s Anant Singh and Mahagathbandhan’s Surajbhan Singh’s wife Veena Devi are locked in a fierce battle. But this time the contest has become triangular with Jan Suraj nominee Piyush Priyadarshi giving sleepless nights to both musclemen. He is becoming quite popular among the Extremely Backward Castes. The mood says 2025 may not see a repeat of 2020. But the fluidity still dominates the scene.

• With the killing of Jan Suraj supporter Dularchand  Yadav in the Mokama constituency, the state reported the first poll-related murder.

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• The local police have lodged an FIR against JDU candidate in the constituency musclemen Anant Singh and four others in the case.

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• The incident occurred when the cavalcade of Anant crossed the path of  Jan Suraj candidate Piyush Priyadarshi while campaigning in the Tal area.

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• The  murder has political  ramifications. Anant Singh is the icon of Bhumihars in the area as well as across the state, while Dularchand had the halo of a hero among the Yadavs and other backward castes.

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• If the voters in the constituency got divided along the caste lines, Jan Suraj may surprise the two musclemen Surajbhan Singh and Anant Singh.